According to Canalys data, in the fourth quarter of 2022, the shipping volume of global desktop and laptop fell by 29%to 65.4 million units.The weak macro environment and destocking phenomenon are generally mentioned in recent financial report conference calls, especially key component suppliers such as Samsung, Intel, LGD and AMD.
Pure PC shipments and growth rate forecast in 2023 and 2024 (including integrated computers)
Source: Canalys, Core Eight Brother Compilation
Different parts of the personal computer supply chain face different challenges, so the recovery time is different.Canalys predicts that the first company that starts the inventory adjustment will first get out of this cycle.Considering the long order process, the inventory level of channels and PC suppliers should be returned to normal earlier than upstream component suppliers.According to the recent financial results of top PC suppliers (excluding Apple), HP and ASUS's inventory days have begun to decline, while the remaining three major suppliers (Dell, Lenovo and Acer) have increased slightly.
As all manufacturers have adopted positive actions to reduce output, the overall inventory days in the fourth quarter of 2022 and the first quarter of 2023 will be further improved, and it is expected to resume normal inventory levels in the second quarter of 2023.At the same time, the recent public opinion survey conducted on Candefero showed that more than 60%of the partners' PC inventory levels are lower than around, and about 20%of the respondents hold more than nine weeks of inventory, which indicates that the overall channel inventory level levelIt is returning to a healthier level.
Product cycle forecast table of various types of companies
Source: Canalys, Core Eight Brother Compilation
Source: Canalys, CANDEFERO, Core Eight Brother Compilation
In personal computer electronic parts, the price of memory products and display panels fluctuates the greatest because it maintains the necessary market share and adjusts the cost of reducing production capacity.The price dynamics of these two components provide important signals for future recovery.
The display panel is the first key component to decline in price in the third quarter of 2021.After continuously declined, the price of the display panel has reached the cash cost level in the third quarter of 2022.Almost all suppliers operate at a very low utilization rate, or have greatly reduced production capacity.According to Canalys's monthly supply chain check, the price attenuation in recent months is not large, and it is expected to decline in the second quarter of 2023.
In terms of memory products, the prices of DRAM and NAND flash memory products have fallen sharply in the second half of 2022, and Q3 and Q4 have fallen by more than 20%.This has led to a significant reduction of memory suppliers, including Grandians and Micron, in the fourth quarter of 2022, which helped the memory price began to stabilize in the first quarter of 2023.It is expected that the price of memory products will soon reach the bottom level when it has reached cash costs, which will help to quickly promote OEM's demand.
The recent financial reports of LGD, Samsung and SK Hynix show that the performance in the fourth quarter of 2022 was very weak, and the performance guidelines in the first quarter of 2023 were even weaker. This is a necessary pain in the inventory correction cycle.According to Canalys research data, as PCs and smartphone suppliers are adjusted before the procurement volume has increased, the inventory level of component suppliers will continue to increase, and the peak value will be reached in the second quarter of 2023.
Semiconductors such as TSMC and Samsung have not entered a serious downward cycle. This is due to the exposure of markets, customers and products in a high -growth rate, such as cars and high -performance calculations.However, the utilization rate of certain node processes began to decline in the fourth quarter of 2022. For example, TSMC was mainly used for 6/7 nano nodes of smartphones and personal computers.Compared with other products (such as memory and display panels), the use of insufficient capacity utilization capacity of semiconductor wafers may last for several quarters.
At the same time, according to the latest reports of Intel and AMD, due to its large -scale decline in the CPU business of its customers, revenue decreased by 36% and 51%, respectively.Because PC suppliers have cut output significantly, the chance of decreased significantly in the future.Although the PC demand in the first quarter of 2023 will fall again, it is expected that the decline will gradually weaken in the next few quarters.
In fact, most suppliers and component suppliers are looking forward to better demand in the second half of 2023.According to Canalys data prediction, if the purchase order is squeezed in the same time, the component price will rebound sharply in the second half of the year.In the case of limited predictability of future needs, the purchase team to increase component orders to increase component orders within the correction cycle is a difficult decision, which takes time to digest market emotions.In the second quarter of 2023, some manufacturers are willing to take more risks. Enterprises that earlier orders earlier than peers will respond to market demand faster and reduce the impact of the next component price increase.
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